The new owners of Paramount shelled out billions for UFC. ESPN shelled out billions for WWE premium live events for its app and cable networks. Netflix jumped into the mix by grabbing the rights to Monday Night Raw, and let’s be honest, very few people are watching. Everywhere you look, cable channels and streaming services are writing massive checks for sports content.
And I think it’s a losing proposition.
The Illusion of Sports as a Sure Thing
For years, media companies believed that sports were the last bastion of live content. People might time-shift their TV shows, but sports? Sports had to be watched live, which meant advertisers still paid a premium. That logic fueled the arms race. Every new service wanted a sports deal to make their platform “sticky.”
But the audience isn’t endless. We’ve reached a saturation point. There are only so many people willing to watch UFC, WWE, or second-tier sports on streaming. Even the big acquisitions—like WWE Raw, don’t move the needle the way executives hope.
The NFL Exception
There’s one league that defies the gravity pulling down everything else: the NFL. It’s the only sport with guaranteed viewership that justifies billion-dollar deals year after year. It’s appointment television. It drives subscriptions, advertising, and cultural conversation.
But everything else? Not so much. UFC and WWE have their passionate fans, but they’re niche compared to the NFL juggernaut. College sports, baseball, basketball, they all have audiences, but the value is nowhere near what the networks and streamers are paying for them.
Why This Is Unsustainable
Billions spent on sports rights are starting to look a lot like bad 401(k) investments, chasing returns that aren’t there. You’re buying high, hoping the market will keep climbing, and ignoring the fundamentals. At some point, the bubble bursts.
Streaming services can’t burn cash forever. Cable networks are already bleeding subscribers. Eventually, executives and shareholders are going to realize they can’t keep throwing money at every sport that comes up for renewal. There will be a reckoning.
What Happens Next
I predict we’ll see consolidation. Maybe fewer services will bid for sports rights. Maybe certain sports will be pushed back to their own niche streaming platforms. Or maybe leagues will figure out direct-to-consumer models that cut out the middlemen.
But one thing is clear: outside of the NFL, the days of billion-dollar rights deals may be numbered.
Because just like in the retirement plan industry, where chasing shiny investments often leads to disappointment, the media industry is about to learn a painful lesson: paying too much for content that doesn’t deliver isn’t strategy, it’s hubris.
