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Business is cyclical


20 years ago, the hard liquor business was dying and microbreweries were the hottest thing. People may not be aware of it, but for most of the existence of television, the spirit industry had a self-imposed ban on liquor advertising. We all know that beer advertising was a thing, but hard liquor ads never popped, until someone broke the ban. Crown Royal started advertising on TV in 1996 and the spirit industry is doing quite well. Just asked celebrities such as George Clooney and Sammy Hagar about how profitable the business is now and the beer industry, like an old Bud, is flat.

What does my history of the liquor business means is that not only is business cyclical, there can be game-changers that could decimate or turnaround the industry. Another stock market crash will hurt the business, a law change that curtails the role of some plan providers may hurt as well. Other changes could have a beneficial impact on the business. Nothing is stationary forever, this business like every other business, changes.

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